Title Race
Tournament odds from a Monte Carlo simulation of 20,000 full tournaments — group stage through final, including the official Round-of-32 bracket. Each column is the probability of reaching that round.
| # | Team | Grp | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇪🇸Spain | H | 99% | 77% | 57% | 46% | 32% | 22.7% |
| 2 | 🇦🇷Argentina | J | 98% | 68% | 48% | 37% | 23% | 15.4% |
| 3 | 🇫🇷France | I | 95% | 72% | 50% | 32% | 21% | 11.4% |
| 4 | 🏴England | L | 97% | 67% | 40% | 24% | 14% | 7.0% |
| 5 | 🇧🇷Brazil | C | 95% | 60% | 40% | 25% | 13% | 5.7% |
| 6 | 🇵🇹Portugal | K | 92% | 59% | 27% | 17% | 8% | 4.2% |
| 7 | 🇨🇴Colombia | K | 91% | 58% | 26% | 16% | 8% | 4.0% |
| 8 | 🇲🇽Mexico | A | 99% | 67% | 35% | 17% | 8% | 3.4% |
| 9 | 🇳🇱Netherlands | F | 91% | 54% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3.2% |
| 10 | 🇪🇨Ecuador | E | 96% | 58% | 31% | 16% | 8% | 3.1% |
| 11 | 🇩🇪Germany | E | 95% | 57% | 30% | 15% | 7% | 2.8% |
| 12 | 🇹🇷Türkiye | D | 83% | 53% | 30% | 12% | 5% | 2.0% |
| 13 | 🇳🇴Norway | I | 82% | 48% | 22% | 10% | 5% | 1.8% |
| 14 | 🇭🇷Croatia | L | 90% | 49% | 21% | 10% | 5% | 1.8% |
| 15 | 🇯🇵Japan | F | 87% | 46% | 26% | 12% | 5% | 1.7% |
| 16 | 🇨🇭Switzerland | B | 95% | 58% | 32% | 12% | 4% | 1.7% |
| 17 | 🇧🇪Belgium | G | 92% | 55% | 31% | 11% | 4% | 1.6% |
| 18 | 🇺🇾Uruguay | H | 89% | 37% | 17% | 9% | 3% | 1.2% |
| 19 | 🇺🇸United States | D | 97% | 54% | 28% | 9% | 3% | 0.9% |
| 20 | 🇸🇳Senegal | I | 73% | 38% | 16% | 6% | 3% | 0.8% |
| 21 | 🇨🇦Canada | B | 88% | 46% | 21% | 7% | 2% | 0.7% |
| 22 | 🇲🇦Morocco | C | 79% | 35% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0.7% |
| 23 | 🇰🇷South Korea | A | 96% | 49% | 18% | 6% | 2% | 0.4% |
| 24 | 🇦🇹Austria | J | 70% | 24% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0.4% |
| 25 | 🇮🇷Iran | G | 78% | 34% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0.2% |
| 26 | 🏴Scotland | C | 73% | 27% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0.2% |
| 27 | 🇦🇺Australia | D | 60% | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0.2% |
| 28 | 🇩🇿Algeria | J | 59% | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0.1% |
| 29 | 🇵🇾Paraguay | D | 33% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0.1% |
| 30 | 🇨🇿Czechia | A | 55% | 21% | 7% | 1% | 0% | — |
| 31 | 🇵🇦Panama | L | 62% | 19% | 4% | 1% | 0% | — |
| 32 | 🇨🇮Ivory Coast | E | 65% | 20% | 6% | 1% | 0% | — |
| 33 | 🇸🇪Sweden | F | 55% | 17% | 6% | 2% | 0% | — |
| 34 | 🇪🇬Egypt | G | 65% | 22% | 7% | 1% | 0% | — |
| 35 | 🇺🇿Uzbekistan | K | 48% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | — |
| 36 | 🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina | B | 68% | 19% | 4% | 1% | — | — |
| 37 | 🇹🇳Tunisia | F | 35% | 8% | 2% | 0% | — | — |
| 38 | 🇯🇴Jordan | J | 38% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 39 | 🇨🇩DR Congo | K | 34% | 8% | 1% | 0% | — | — |
| 40 | 🇿🇦South Africa | A | 18% | 3% | 0% | — | — | — |
| 41 | 🇶🇦Qatar | B | 18% | 2% | 0% | — | — | — |
| 42 | 🇭🇹Haiti | C | 22% | 4% | 1% | 0% | — | — |
| 43 | 🇨🇼Curaçao | E | 11% | 1% | 0% | — | — | — |
| 44 | 🇳🇿New Zealand | G | 35% | 7% | 1% | 0% | — | — |
| 45 | 🇨🇻Cape Verde | H | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | — | — |
| 46 | 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia | H | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | — | — |
| 47 | 🇮🇶Iraq | I | 19% | 4% | 1% | 0% | — | — |
| 48 | 🇬🇭Ghana | L | 16% | 2% | 0% | — | — | — |
Model 0.1.0 · Monte Carlo over Elo->Poisson group + knockout simulation. Probabilistic forecast, not betting advice.