比赛详情

Sweden (FIFA #38, Elo 1712) are narrow favourites over Tunisia (FIFA #45, Elo 1628); the model is driven by their Elo gap of 84. The model gives Sweden 45% / draw 26% / Tunisia 29%, with a most-likely scoreline of 1-1. Ratings are close, so this is flagged low confidence — a genuine toss-up.

预测方向命中，但具体比分有偏差，后续需要继续校准进球数和防守强度。

模型方向暂不需要大幅调整，重点微调预期进球和比分分布。