比赛详情

Spain (FIFA #2, Elo 2157) are clear favourites over Cape Verde (FIFA #67, Elo 1578); the model is driven by their Elo gap of 579. The model gives Spain 87% / draw 11% / Cape Verde 2%, with a most-likely scoreline of 2-0. The rating gap is large enough to call this high confidence.

预测方向偏差，赛前更看好西班牙胜，实际打出平局，属于需要重点复盘的冷门场次。

建议提高平局走势近期状态、临场执行和防守质量的权重，避免只被赛前排名牵引。