比赛详情

Iran (FIFA #20, Elo 1772) are favourites over New Zealand (FIFA #85, Elo 1562); the model is driven by their Elo gap of 210. The model gives Iran 57% / draw 24% / New Zealand 19%, with a most-likely scoreline of 1-0. A clear but not overwhelming edge — medium confidence.

预测方向偏差，赛前更看好伊朗胜，实际打出平局，属于需要重点复盘的冷门场次。

建议提高平局走势近期状态、临场执行和防守质量的权重，避免只被赛前排名牵引。