比赛详情

England (FIFA #4, Elo 2024) are favourites over Croatia (FIFA #11, Elo 1912); the model is driven by their Elo gap of 112. The model gives England 48% / draw 26% / Croatia 27%, with a most-likely scoreline of 1-1. A clear but not overwhelming edge — medium confidence.

预测方向命中，但具体比分有偏差，后续需要继续校准进球数和防守强度。

模型方向暂不需要大幅调整，重点微调预期进球和比分分布。