比赛详情

Colombia (FIFA #13, Elo 1982) are clear favourites over Uzbekistan (FIFA #50, Elo 1714); the model is driven by their Elo gap of 268. The model gives Uzbekistan 15% / draw 22% / Colombia 63%, with a most-likely scoreline of 0-1. The rating gap is large enough to call this high confidence.

预测方向命中，但具体比分有偏差，后续需要继续校准进球数和防守强度。

模型方向暂不需要大幅调整，重点微调预期进球和比分分布。