比赛详情

Canada (FIFA #30, Elo 1767) are clear favourites over Qatar (FIFA #56, Elo 1421); the model is driven by their Elo gap of 346. As a tournament host, Canada get a home-advantage bump worth ~65 Elo points in this projection. The model gives Canada 76% / draw 17% / Qatar 7%, with a most-likely scoreline of 2-0. The rating gap is large enough to call this high confidence.

预测方向命中，但具体比分有偏差，后续需要继续校准进球数和防守强度。

模型方向暂不需要大幅调整，重点微调预期进球和比分分布。