比赛详情

Mexico (FIFA #14, Elo 1881) are favourites over South Korea (FIFA #25, Elo 1786); the model is driven by their Elo gap of 95. As a tournament host, Mexico get a home-advantage bump worth ~65 Elo points in this projection. The model gives Mexico 52% / draw 25% / South Korea 23%, with a most-likely scoreline of 1-0. A clear but not overwhelming edge — medium confidence.

方向和比分都命中，赛前模型对双方强弱和进球区间判断比较稳定。

模型方向暂不需要大幅调整，重点微调预期进球和比分分布。