比赛详情

United States (FIFA #17, Elo 1780) are narrow favourites over Australia (FIFA #27, Elo 1777); the model is driven by their Elo gap of 3. As a tournament host, United States get a home-advantage bump worth ~65 Elo points in this projection. The model gives United States 43% / draw 26% / Australia 31%, with a most-likely scoreline of 1-1. Ratings are close, so this is flagged low confidence — a genuine toss-up.

预测方向命中，但具体比分有偏差，后续需要继续校准进球数和防守强度。

模型方向暂不需要大幅调整，重点微调预期进球和比分分布。